The Economic Analyst

Comments on CIBC's "no US-style crash for Canadian housing" report: Part 1

NOVEMBER 04, 2012

I feel compelled to give my thoughts on a highly-publicized CIBC report out last week titled, “Should we worry about a US-style housing meltdown?”, written by Ben Tal.  The full report can be read here.

It’s actually an excellent report that’s well worth the read.  Today I’d like to highlight the parts I agree with, tomorrow the parts I disagree with, and the later, and most importantly, what I think is missing in this discussion of housing market risks.

Credit tightening and the end of the Canadian housing bubble

APRIL 01, 2012

A credit-driven asset bubble will, by necessity, meet an untimely end when the credit lifeblood driving the bubble is constricted.  It's time to take note of the incremental (and not so incremental) mortgage underwriting changes coming to Canada and question whether house prices can be sustained absent a continued, strong expansion in credit.

Population growth will NOT prevent the Candian housing bubble from going bust

FEBRUARY 29, 2012

If I read another ridiculous article proclaiming that Canadian real estate can defy fundamentals in perpetuity simply because we have a measure of population growth, I'm going to bang my head against a wall. 

Is Toronto in a bubble? Interesting discussion with a mortgage broker

DECEMBER 20, 2011

I had an interesting discussion with well-known Toronto mortgage broker David Larock.  It started with the following picture showing the real house price index I had created for Toronto