Tag: China
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Exploring what a 'hard landing' in China would mean for the Canadian economy
MARCH 14, 2011
This is the title of a fascinating new report by TD economics. I have long warned that the possibility of a hard landing in China remains the greatest black swan event for the Canadian (and world) economy.
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Rich Chinese investors back in the news...
NOVEMBER 15, 2010
More Hot Asian Money fluff
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Bubble in China means Canada at risk; The economic headwinds in pictures
NOVEMBER 25, 2010
Bubblicious in China I've said before that there are really only two global property bubbles that eclipse ours: The Australian bubble and the Chinese bubble. In a strange way, our economy and that of Australia are directly dependent on the continuation of the Chinese economic miracle. Yet there is increasing reason to question the sustainability of the bubble in China and if you're a Canadian, you owe it to yourself to get educated on this matter.
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More red lights in China; House prices at a stalemate?
DECEMBER 02, 2010
Tomorrow we'll do another monthly round-up of the big real estate board stats. Victoria and Calgary are out already. Toronto and Vancouver come out tomorrow. Should be fun! Red lights in China...What's next for commodities? Hat tip to Donald for emailing me this story. China leading indicators flashing red lights
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Canadian housing starts rise; More thoughts on the potential bubble in China
DECEMBER 08, 2010
Housing starts rise in November...but are gains sustainable? CMHC today released their preliminary housing starts data for November. After the substantial drop in October's numbers, today's numbers have shown surprising strength. "The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 187,200 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is up from 167,800 units in October."
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Canadian bankers fret over mortgage amortization lengths; China moves to quell inflation...will it squash the commodity rally in the process?
DECEMBER 10, 2010
Bankers seeing the light
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China inflation comes in higher than expected; Jarislowsky sees the bubble; Bonds continue to get smacked
DECEMBER 10, 2010
China inflation comes in higher than expected In what may well seal the fate of rumored interest rate increase by the PBoC, official inflation rates just released from China show inflation at a 28 month high. It came in at 5.1%, well above the consensus 4.7 percent, and way above the current deposit rate of 2.5%. If the PBoC doesn't act, they risk money fleeing deposits and fueling even larger speculative bubbles.
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More insights on the China bubble; Harper finds his austerity mojo; A quick musing on impliactions of social inequalities
DECEMBER 11, 2010
More on China I know I've been discussing this at length lately, but I do think that the potential of a hard landing in China has major repercussions for Canada. And so, I highlight the plight of the People's Bank of China in their quest to tap the brakes on a $5 trillion economy without swerving off the road. We anxiously await news of an interest rate decision from the PBoC. I'll update you when the news is out.
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People's Bank of China flinches on rate hike...Commodity rally safe for now
DECEMBER 13, 2010
Despite rising inflation, the PBoC has decided not to hike interest rates, instead hoping the increased reserve requirements announced late last week will stem the tide of credit-induced inflation. China flinches on rate move "The People’s Bank of China is hesitating to raise interest rates despite increasingly worrisome inflation, apparently due to concerns that higher rates would attract inflows of speculative capital."
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A random smattering of Christmas data points
DECEMBER 24, 2010
With the holidays now upon us, this will be the last post likely until December 27th. Let's take a quick tour through some of the interesting data points from the past couple days: So much for the conservative Conservatives Just a few weeks after big Jim and warned of tough budgets to come, it now looks like he's having second thoughts. Flaherty rethinks Canada's budget
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China raises rates: More thoughts on the China-Commodity connection
DECEMBER 27, 2010
China raises interest rates Two weeks ago I suggested that a rate hike was all but assured from the People's Bank of China. I expected the rate hike on December 11th. Instead, perhaps out of fear of causing a hard landing in their overheating economy, the People's Bank stopped at raising reserve requirements at Chinese banks in an attempt to limit the amount of new credit entering the system.
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UK house prices falling; Carney's debt conundrum; Is the smart money fleeing China?
DECEMBER 27, 2010
UK House Prices Falling You have to pity those poor homeowners who don't live in fairytale countries like Canada and Australia where fundamentals like price/income, price/rent, and affordability mean nothing. In countries where fundamentals do matter, like the US and evidently the UK, it's a different story. UK House prices fall for sixth straight month
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Happy New Year! What might 2011 hold?
JANUARY 01, 2011
Happy New Year to all! As we begin another year, it's always fun to contemplate just what the next 365 days might hold. Below are a few 'top 5' lists covering a range of finance and economic topics. Top global real estate stories: 1) Canadian real estate begins a protracted period of falling valuations. Sales remain weak. Listings gain steam throughout the year. I expect 10% off year-ago levels as a minimum.
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Addendum to my 2011 predictions: Boomers, bubbles, and busts
JANUARY 01, 2011
Boomer dynamics Two more thoughts should be added to the 2011 outlook. Shortly after posting my predictions, Leith over at the Unconventional Economist reminded me that 2011 is the year when the first boomer turns 65.
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Rant against the Toronto Star; Albert Edwards chimes in on China's "freak economy" and deflation
JANUARY 03, 2011
Mainstream media censorship
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A look into our future
JANUARY 04, 2011
Not too much by way of real estate data points for today, but lots of interesting happenings in the world of finance and economics. As the big real estate boards figure out how to spin this month's numbers, which should be out tomorrow and I expect will show a 20% year over year sales decline in most boards, let's turn our eyes to events that may well foreshadow what is to come here in Canada. For one day I look like a genius
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Frustration in Europe's youth; Public unions under the gun in the States; China considering major property tax to squeeze bubble
JANUARY 05, 2011
European youth grow agitated Unemployment for the under-25 crowd is still stubbornly high across most of the Western world. As I've said before, young people with little by way of job prospects and facing the reality of a lower standard of living via rising taxes and shrinking government spending have a dangerous tendency to embrace radical ideals. The next few years will see the increasing popularity of fringe political parties in Europe, as they tap into growing resentment in generation Y'ers in particular.
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'The consumer of 2020' and other great reads
JANUARY 11, 2011
The consumer of 2020 A very interesting report was released today by Deloitte: Consumer 2020- Reading the Signs
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Survey of Forecasters data; From stimulus to restraint; China's empty malls
JANUARY 12, 2011
Survey of Forecasters The Conference Board of Canada has released their 2011 survey of economic forecasters (subscription required) in which they surveyed economists about the growth prospects for the Canadian economy in 2011. The average analyst estimate for final 2011 GDP growth is 2.5%. This represents a 26% adjustment from analyst expectations earlier in 2010 when they forecast 2011 growth in the 3.4% range.
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Toronto condo data; China about to hit a wall?; Fiscal austerity to weigh on public sector jobs; The Age of Deleveraging; Another video primer
JANUARY 20, 2011
Toronto condo data The Toronto Real Estate Board released their most recent rental market report yesterday. It showed both a substantial jump in rental transactions and a jump in rental inventory.
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Consumer confidence rises in January; Global food inflation concerns mounting
JANUARY 25, 2011
Consumer confidence rises in January The Conference Board released its January consumer confidence reading yesterday. The index rose 7.1 points to sit at 88.1, still well below the pre-recession average of +-100, but still much better than would be expected.
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The week that was
JANUARY 29, 2011
Lots of interesting happenings on the economics front from this past week. Here are a few that were on my radar: Canada's economic recovery not as strong as originally reported Canada no longer leads recovery standings
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Housing starts flatline; Remax discusses past real estate performance; CREA updates 2011 housing forecast; China raises interest rates
FEBRUARY 08, 2011
Housing starts flatline CMHC released their January 2011 housing starts data today. Seasonally adjusted housing starts were virtually unchanged from December 2010 numbers, but down significantly from both the 12 month average and last January's numbers. From BMO:
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Food inflation in China skyrockets; Retailer margin squeeze coming; More thoughts on stock picking
FEBRUARY 14, 2011
Food inflation in China skyrockets Chinese inflation numbers are set to be released tomorrow, with the market expecting a sub-5% reading....lower than anticipated earlier in the year.
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The United States' largest export: Inflation
FEBRUARY 16, 2011
Note from Ben: The following post is courtesy of John in Ottawa A couple of days ago, Jesse made the comment that China has been exporting deflation to Canada for years. That’s absolutely correct and life has been easier ever since we became able to buy a dozen tube socks for six dollars. But that’s not the current debate. The current debate, and Jesse’s comment got me thinking about it, is the US exporting inflation to the rest of the world. We have heard that food price inflation is helping to inflame much of the Arab world.
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Conference Board on housing; OECD leading indicators show a slowdown in emerging markets
FEBRUARY 22, 2011
Conference Board weighs in on housing The Conference Board of Canada has published their Metropolitan Outlook for 2011 (subscription required to read report). While the outlook for each city is interesting, I was drawn to their macro outlook for Canada as a whole where they chimed in on two topics that I often discuss on this blog: Consumer spending and housing. On consumer spending...
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Revisiting predictions: Commodities still hanging tough, public sector unions under fire, European debt crisis intensifies, interest rate predictions
MARCH 08, 2011
Revisiting predictions
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Dateline on the Chinese housing bubble
MARCH 21, 2011
China's property bubble
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China’s property bubble at risk?; What is driving oil prices?; Greek bond yields explode as Germany states support for restructuring
APRIL 16, 2011
Hat tip to the fine folks over at MacroBusiness Australia for these links… China property bubble at risk? Moody’s Investor Services downgraded China’s property sector to negative from stable citing deteriorating credit conditions over the next 12-18 months.
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Chinese economy: The latest assessment
MAY 17, 2011
The following is a guest post from Also Sprach Analyst, an excellent web site devoted primarily to analysis of the Chinese economy. The site's main author, writing under the pseudonym Zarathustra, is a London School of Economics graduate and former equity research analyst focusing on the Hong Kong and Chinese real esatte markets.
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The real estate industry spin machine in overdrive: Some Sunday reading to make you chuckle
MAY 29, 2011
I have nothing against the real estate industry in general. I really don't. At the end of the day, they are looking out for the best interest of their members. I understand that. It's really no different than the multitude of publicly-traded companies who try to spin negative news into a positive light for the benefit of their shareholders or management.
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Roubini, Rosenberg remind us what risk is; Public sector on the chopping block
JUNE 13, 2011
Quite the start to the week. The TSX was hammered again and is not down over 9% from its highs of just a few weeks ago. The standard definition of a stock market correction is 10%, so we're closing in on that. With debt woes continuing to plague Europe, and threatening to at some point bite the US in the butt, it seems that the underlying risks to the global recovery are once again being recognized.
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Risk.....a forgotten four letter word
JUNE 20, 2011
There is a well known saying, purported to be derived from an old Chinese proverb: "May you live in interesting times". It's more of a curse than a proverb, really. Regardless of its origins, it is most certainly true of the world today. These are interesting times.
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The debt perception dichotomy....or why the road to financial hell is paved with good intentions.
JUNE 22, 2011
Debt perception dichotomy: It never ceases to amaze me just how staggeringly comfortable many people are with their massive debt burdens. You may recall that the Bank of Canada recently ran a stress test scenario and determined that a 0.5% increase in interest rates would put 1.1 million Canadian households under significant financial pressure. No kidding! Let's do some simple arithmetic: Low interest rates....
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Storm clouds over China; More data on the Toronto condo market; What's driving the Vancouver housing market?
JUNE 23, 2011
Storm clouds over China? All is not well in the People's Republic.
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Odlum Brown on the Vancouver housing market: When the pizza guy is giving housing tips...
JUNE 25, 2011
Odlum Brown on Vancouver's housing market: The must-read report of the day is courtesy of Murray Leith, Vice President at Odlum Brown. This is an excellent overview of the risks to the Vancouver housing market. The report can be read here.
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Debunking the supposed drivers of Vancouver's crazy real estate market
AUGUST 25, 2011
Debunking the supposed drivers of Vancouver’s absurd real estate market Vancouver house prices are nuts. RBC recently calculated that ownership costs associated with a standard condo in the city consumer nearly 50% of the average family income. The carrying costs of bungalows and two story homes are even more ridiculous, consuming 93% and 96% of household income respectively. And we know what the other fundamentals look like in that city:
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Market panic, gray swans, and a eulogy for the debt-driven Canadian consumer
SEPTEMBER 22, 2011
Market panic as Fed disappoints: Has the famed 'Bernanke put' finally been removed? The US Fed made the widely expected announcement of 'Operation Twist' yesterday. Earlier, analysts like David Rosenberg warned that unless Bernanke 'shocked' the market with something wildly unexpected, the reaction would likely be very negative. Good call.
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Canadian employment withers; Vancouver and area inventory builds as prices feel the heat; China's property bubble deflating?
NOVEMBER 07, 2011
Canadian jobs report shows major weakness:
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