The Economic Analyst

So much for the ‘conservative’ Canadian consumer: Another look at Canada’s credit bubble

MARCH 30, 2011

The 'conservative' Canadian consumer has been often cited as one of the primary reasons for Canada's miraculous escape from the depths of the Great Recession. In fact, earlier this week, the deputy governor of the Bank of Canada attributed our ability to largely side step the worst of the recession to our, "relatively strong household balance sheets".

What are the implications?

APRIL 07, 2011

I'm working on a neat series looking at the historical percentage of GDP derived from residential construction in different provinces and connecting that to the change in the percentage of the workforce employed in construction over time. It might give us some hints on how a potential housing correction might weigh on economic and job growth. Stay tuned for that.

Stats Canada discusses household debt

APRIL 24, 2011

Quick debt primer: Stats Canada released an interesting report last week dealing with consumer debt levels in Canada.  Before getting to that, it's worth taking a minute and discussing consumer debt levels in Canada by way of a quick primer for any new readers.  Most readers of this site know that aggregate consumer debt levels in Canada remain at historic highs.  As a measure of GDP, consumer debt levels are on par with those of our American neighbours prior to the implosion of their debt bubble.

Another look at CMHC: Canadian Moral Hazard Corporation

JUNE 21, 2011

Canada Moral Hazard Corporation:  The Mises Institute weighs in on CMHC

What's really driving house prices in Canada? The must-see graph of the day...

JUNE 23, 2011

Export picture darkens; Leading indicators of industry profitability decline; Credit demand drops

AUGUST 12, 2011

Export picture darkens: Canada’s trade balance deteriorated markedly in June, widening to $1.6 billion from $1.0 billion in May.  From TD:

Mortgage crazy! A look at loan approvals by province

SEPTEMBER 08, 2011

Debt, psychology, and asset bubbles: We know that asset bubbles typically require widespread participation by the general public (i.e. a new and prevailing sentiment towards the asset class in question) and they are often fueled by cheap and readily available credit. 

Thoughts from CMHC's Canadian Housing Observer

JANUARY 01, 2012

Happy New Year!  I’m hoping to get a chance to post some 2012 predictions and review my 2011 predictions, which I’m fairly happy with. In the meantime, I just wanted to share a few thoughts on CMHC after reading through the 2011 edition of their flagship publication, The Canadian Housing Observer. Readers will know that I have been critical of CMHC over the following: CMHC’s mandate, which I believe is inherently self-defeating.