Tag: prices
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Spinsters at work
SEPTEMBER 15, 2010
Check out the title of the following stories: Home sales rise for the first time since March Home sales up in August Home resales rise
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Quick tour through the board stats- November 2010
DECEMBER 03, 2010
It's that time of the month again. We once again turn our eyes to the big realtor boards and dissect the sales, inventory, and price trends in their real estate markets. Victoria Sales totaled 479, representing a rise over the previous few months, but remaining 21% lower than last year's numbers and standing at near decade lows.
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CREA releases November sales data: Real estate showing clear signs of strengthening, but questions remain.
DECEMBER 15, 2010
CREA released their final sales data for November. Needless to say, the market is showing some surprising strength, though some unanswered questions remain. Sales did register 9% below 2009 levels, but they were certainly not alarmingly low. However, with the exception of the panic-induced abysmal sales levels of 2008, they did come in at the lowest numbers in at least 5 years.
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GTA home sales weaken in December; Particular weakness out of City of Toronto
DECEMBER 17, 2010
Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area had shown a significant rebound in year-over-year sales data since bottoming at a -34% reading in July. Home sales had improved on a year-over-year basis through to November, where sales came in a modest 13% below 2009 levels. However, the strengthening trend may well be in for a reversal if mid-month data is any indication. TREB reported today that mid-month sales came in 19% below year-ago levels across the GTA.
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An alternate viewpoint on Canada's credit bubble
DECEMBER 25, 2010
Merry Christmas! I said I wouldn't post again until the 27th, but I noticed this gem of a comment from John in Ottawa. I've reposted a couple of his comments before. They are always well thought out, weighted, and insightful. This one is no different.
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Teranet house price index shows second straight monthly decline
DECEMBER 29, 2010
The Teranet index for October, released today, showed a second straight monthly decline. The index uses a paired sales methodology to calculate changes in house prices.
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Quick tour through the board stats- December 2010
JANUARY 06, 2011
It’s that time of the month again. We once again turn our eyes to the big realtor boards and dissect the sales, inventory, and price trends in their real estate markets. Click on the city name to see the actual press release from each board. Victoria
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Toronto condo data; China about to hit a wall?; Fiscal austerity to weigh on public sector jobs; The Age of Deleveraging; Another video primer
JANUARY 20, 2011
Toronto condo data The Toronto Real Estate Board released their most recent rental market report yesterday. It showed both a substantial jump in rental transactions and a jump in rental inventory.
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Do buyers or sellers determine real estate prices?
JANUARY 20, 2011
It's a question worth considering as we approach month 7 of the buyer/seller standoff. The new mortgage rules will certainly limit the ability of a number of would-be home owners to acquire the financing needed to keep house prices bid at their current levels. Home owners might believe that they set market prices and if no willing buyer can be found at their price point, they can simply pull the listing until prices firm. No doubt this is a motivating factor behind the massive decline in inventory nation wide over the last 6 months. But how rational is this move?
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Consumer confidence rises in January; Global food inflation concerns mounting
JANUARY 25, 2011
Consumer confidence rises in January The Conference Board released its January consumer confidence reading yesterday. The index rose 7.1 points to sit at 88.1, still well below the pre-recession average of +-100, but still much better than would be expected.
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Is homeowner equity a predictor of future price movements?
FEBRUARY 02, 2011
There's been quite a buzz about Vancouver detached homes hitting a new all-time high. I will address that data in my monthly tour of board stats just as soon as the data packages are released at the other big boards, which should be on Friday. In the meantime, let's consider an article from the Globe and Mail (kind thanks to my number 1 fan Mango for the link): Why a rate hike won't be a blow to most
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Capital Economics report suggests that rising interest rates could trigger housing collapse
FEBRUARY 03, 2011
Rate hikes could trigger Canadian housing collapse At least that's the conclusion of a new report from Capital Economics who have calculated that home prices could fall 25-35% as the overnight interest rate from the Bank of Canada rises from its current level of 1% to closer to 3.5% by the end of 2012.
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Quick tour through the board stats: January 2011
FEBRUARY 05, 2011
It's that time of the month again. Let's dive into the monthly board stats and see how things are shaping up. The board press releases can be found by clicking on the city name. Victoria Residential sales totaled 339, a decrease of 19% from last January's total of 418. Active listings rose slightly over December's numbers to sit just under 3300 units. This represents an increase of 15% over last January's inventory total of 2800 units.
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A call for data: Just how much of a role does Hot Asian Money play in the Vancouver real estate market?
FEBRUARY 19, 2011
Vancouver debate continues... I'm currently having an interesting discussion with a couple frequent commenters on this blog in the comment section of a previous post. It's a discussion that has been pitting the Vancouver housing bulls against the Vancouver housing bears for years. Without a doubt, the bulls have won decisively for much of the past half decade since alarm bells started ringing about Vancouver house prices in the mid 2000s.
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Teranet index reverses 3 month decline, posts positive monthly gains in December
FEBRUARY 23, 2011
The Teranet Index is an index used to calculate house price increases by using a paired-sales methodology similar to that of the Case-Shiller index in the US. It provides an alternate view of the current state of the housing market. Unfortunately, it is consistently 2 months behind as the data takes longer to process.
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Why turmoil in the Middle East can mean $200 oil by the summer (over $2 a litre).....and a possible economic crash shortly after
FEBRUARY 23, 2011
In the past few weeks we've seen revolutions spread throughout a handful of countries in the Middle East. We've seen the price of oil spike as Libya (the 15th largest oil producing nation) sits on the verge of civil war.
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Why falling house prices will pull at employment (not the other way around)
MARCH 01, 2011
Why a housing downturn would hurt employment This is a topic I discuss often on this lowly blog. It's a source of confusion for many people as most see employment as buoying house prices, not the other way around. I take a decidedly different view on this. The argument typically runs along the lines of, "house prices won't fall until there's a fall in unemployment". Let me suggest that one of the problems with credit bubbles is that they mask the true employment picture, which becomes clear as day the moment the credit binge dries up.
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More signs of a coming condo glut
MARCH 02, 2011
As I've noted before, the Toronto condo market is near its saturation point and looks set for a fall. The city currently has 286 active condo projects currently underway, representing 73,953 units — by far the most of any city in North America. This level of development is significantly outpacing the expected level of demand considering net household formation in the GTA.
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Scotia calculates the risk of sharp housing correction is 'low'; Gaping holes in their logic
MARCH 02, 2011
I want to spend a bit more time looking at the Scotia Economics report on Canadian real estate trends released yesterday. The report can be found here. In particular I want to zone in on page 4 which has as a title for this section, "Risk of a Sharp House Price Correction Remains Low". I'm frankly quite shocked at some of the inconsistencies and glaring holes in the logic of the authors. Let's first highlight the key quotes from this section:
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Interesting article in The Economist: 'Bricks and Slaughter'
MARCH 04, 2011
I'm just compiling the real estate data from the various boards for the monthly 'Tour through the board stats' feature. Should be done later today. In the meantime, I enjoyed this interesting read courtesy of The Economist: Bricks and Slaughter
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''I should be very worried about Canada'' -Paul Krugman
MARCH 05, 2011
Well the monthly round-up is consuming a bit more time than expected. I'm hoping to release the final numbers tomorrow instead. However, I would like to quickly highlight a very brief blog entry by Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman. Though our economic and political ideologies vary markedly, the man can nonetheless see the writing on the wall when it comes to our current housing market and debt situation:
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Tour through the board stats: February 2011
MARCH 06, 2011
It's that time of the month again. Let's once again turn our eyes to the stats released by the big real estate boards and look for developing trends. You may recall that finance minister Jim Flaherty announced new mortgage rule changes back in January. Those rule changes are set to take effect in mid March and include primarily the shortening of allowable, insurable amortization lengths to 30 years from the current 35 years.
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Examining house prices and rents across the provinces
MAY 14, 2011
Prices and rents revisited: Earlier in the week, we examined the changes in house prices and rents in the largest cities in Canada. We also spent quite a bit of time discussing why changes in rents are one of the measures of fundamental value when it comes to residential real estate. If you are unclear on this, I suggest you re-read the post again. It is important in appreciating the data I am going to present in this post.
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Canadian employment withers; Vancouver and area inventory builds as prices feel the heat; China's property bubble deflating?
NOVEMBER 07, 2011
Canadian jobs report shows major weakness:
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